Population Data in the Time of a Pandemic

India's population data is currently recorded once in every 10 years. The census of India Act was passed in 1948, which enabled the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India to take charge of the proceedings. Although the data is meticulous and well-ordered, it is not collected frequently enough. The last census was recorded in 2011, and the next one is scheduled for 2021. However, the coronavirus pandemic may hinder the collection of data, and there is speculation that the new updated census is not likely to be released on time.1 The first phase of the census collection has already been indefinitely deferred by the Ministry of Home Affairs. Additionally, the unrest surrounding the new citizenship laws (ie CAA and NRC) may also prevent people from giving out accurate information, analysts worry that this will be a major setback to the compilation of the 2021 census.2 This is highly concerning, considering we need accurate and updated data now more than ever, due to the coronavirus epidemic. As of 21 April, India has a total of 18,658 cases 3 and it is vital that each case is kept track of.

Population demographics change extensively within ten years. The population of India is estimated to have risen by 161 million people since the census was last taken,4 which has altered the population dynamic greatly, hence it is unwise to continue relying on it. This poses problems during times of crises. This need, particularly, has been exacerbated during the time of the coronavirus pandemic. Many Indian citizens have been deprived of their due share of amenities due to outdated data. According to recent research,5 over ten crore Indians were excluded from the public distribution system. Many people, especially daily wage workers, depend on the PDS for survival. The pandemic has deprived many people of livelihoods, who would otherwise have the PDS as a fallback option. The outdated census has deprived them of that opportunity. But it will be very expensive and labor-intensive to conduct census more regularly; currently, the overstretched government does not have the capacity to update the numbers. But this problem can be solved if India implements the usage of crowdsourced data for tracking the population. Crowdsourcing is not subject to high infrastructure costs, so it is a viable tool for tracking data.

Crowdsourcing is a “distributed problem-solving and production model that leverages the collective intelligence of online communities”.6 Essentially, it functions by collecting information from a very large variety of people. This is better than collecting information from a few individuals, which could lead to dissimilar results.7 It can be very useful in case of public health. It helps assess the collective health and symptoms from a more unbiased stance. Crowdsourced data is relatively inexpensive, faster and easier to accumulate. Additionally, it is also incredibly useful in the time of a crisis, especially during a pandemic such as the one we are in. Crowdsourced data will allow real time updates on the spread of the disease as soon as one is diagnosed.8 Even minor temporal edges are crucial in the time of a pandemic as far-reaching as this. Real time updates would allow an increase in virological, clinical and epidemical knowledge about the pandemic.9

The World Bank recently published a report on the benefits of governments using crowdsourced geographic information.10 They recommend that governments normalize and implement the use of VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information). VGI is “crowdsourced geographic information provided by a wide range of participants with varying levels of education, knowledge and skills.”11 VGI can help fill the current information vacuums in population data.

Crowdsourcing through VGI can cover data from areas that the census currently does not cover. Through crowdsourcing, it is possible to procure geotagged data on various census parameters such as health, education, in addition to various other bounds. The data can be either self-reported or volunteer-reported. Even an organised database tracking collective symptoms and experiences of tested and untested people would be very useful. This collective information can be used to fill the gaps in health information created by the barriers the census poses.12 This can help prevent potential infodemics. If regularly updated, crowdsourced data will also be useful to help mitigate or even prevent future health crises.

Recently, researchers at Cornell University developed Opendic, an app that relies on crowdsourcing to enable people to make informed decisions about preventative methods and social-distancing pertaining to Covid-19.13 Opendic allows users to share their location anonymously, and their potential or confirmed Covid-19 status. This data can fill the vacuums created by testing shortages across the world. The app rests on the premise of getting a large number of users who can all contribute to the unified database. They have been reaching out to teams with similar ideas so they can “create the largest possible pool of data.” It will be advantageous if an idea of this sort is replicated for the Indian population.

Although it has many benefits, it is very important to note that crowdsourcing has limitations too. Crowdsourced data only acts as a rough estimate,14 and usually retains issues surrounding legitimacy because it can be hard to discern the validity of self-reporting. Crowdsourcing certainly cannot replace the meticulous census, but can instead act as a remarkably useful supplement in times of emergencies such as this. Further research reports are needed on the accuracy of crowd-sourcing on a large scale. But, around the in times of a crisis, this data is certainly crucial. Additionally, it is possible to establish frameworks that can limit the sources of data entries, and thus make the reports more accurate. A variety of mechanisms are available that can ensure that the quality of crowdsourced data is reliable.

References

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2-Chandrashekhar, Vaishnavi. Unrest Imperils India's Census. Science, vol. 367, no. 6484, 2020, pp. 12921292, doi:10.1126/science.367.6484.1292.
3- Team, BS Web. Coronavirus LIVE: ICMR Asks States Not to Use Rapid Test Kits for 2 Days. Business Standard, 21 Apr. 2020.
4- Staff, Scroll. India May Be Forgetting over 100 Million People in Its Coronavirus Relief Measures Quartz India, Quartz, 17 Apr. 2020.
5- Special Correspondent. Outdated Census Data Deprives over 10 Crore of PDS: Economists. The Hindu, The Hindu, 16 Apr. 2020.
6- Brabham DC, Ribisl KM, Kirchner TR, Bernhardt JM. Crowdsourcing applications for public health. Am J Prev Med. 2014;46(2):179–187. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.016.
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9- Leung, Gabriel M, and Kathy Leung. Crowdsourcing Data to Mitigate Epidemics. The Lancet Digital Health, vol. 2, no. 4, 2020, doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30055-8
10- Haklay, m., Antoniou, v., Basiouka, S., Soden, R., and Mooney, P. 2014, Crowdsourced geographic information use in government, Report to GFDRR (World Bank). London
11-Haklay, m., Antoniou, v., Basiouka, S., Soden, R., and Mooney, P. 2014, Crowdsourced geographic information use in government, Report to GFDRR (World Bank). London
12- Chunara, Rumi et al. “Why we need crowdsourced data in infectious disease surveillance.” Current infectious disease reports vol. 15,4 (2013): 316-9. doi:10.1007/s11908-013-0341-5
13- Lefkowitz, Melanie. “Crowdsourcing App Aims to Fill Gaps in Coronavirus Data.” Cornell Chronicle, 17 Mar. 2020.
14- Kraemer, John D., et al. “Crowdsourced Data Collection for Public Health: A Comparison with Nationally Representative, Population Tobacco Use Data.” Preventive Medicine, vol. 102, 2017, pp. 93–99., doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.07.006.